{"id":150538,"date":"2026-10-01T15:07:26","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T18:07:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gapp-oil.com.ar\/?p=150538"},"modified":"2026-10-04T15:09:05","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T18:09:05","slug":"big-oil-just-printed-a-record-q2-is-trump-about-to-shut-the-export-door","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gapp-oil.com.ar\/en\/2026\/10\/01\/big-oil-just-printed-a-record-q2-is-trump-about-to-shut-the-export-door\/","title":{"rendered":"Big Oil Just Printed A Record Q2, Is Trump About To Shut The Export Door?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Merchants,<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Refiners are having the summer of their lives while the man in the White House keeps telling voters that cheap gas is the entire point of his presidency.<\/p>\n

Those two facts don\u2019t sit well together and they\u2019re about to sit a lot worse.<\/p>\n

Trump has leaned on two things to hold pump prices down. Drain the strategic reserve and pump and export record amounts of oil. Both hit a wall at the same moment this autumn! the thing waiting on the other side of that wall is a midterm election.<\/p>\n

\n
\n<\/div>\n

The Reserve Keeps Falling At A Record Pace<\/strong><\/p>\n

The strategic reserve is down to about 307 million barrels, the lowest since 1983 and it\u2019s still falling, at the fastest pace on record.<\/p>\n

Since the Iran war kicked off in late February, Washington has pulled roughly 172 million barrels out of it to shave the top off every price spike, running at 3-5 million a week.<\/p>\n

It isn\u2019t empty, but keep draining at this clip and you reach the practical floor, somewhere near 300 million, where the Energy Secretary starts needing Congress to go any lower.<\/p>\n

On this math US get there around November\u2026.Around the vote.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"\"<\/picture>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>
The reserve at 307.65 million barrels, the lowest since 1983 and falling at the fastest pace on record, closing in on a practical floor near 300 where Washington needs Congress to go lower.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

And there\u2019s no bigger number left to fire.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the part people keep missing, every crisis this decade needed a larger release than the one before and the tank is running low.<\/p>\n

Whatever Trump does about high gasoline from here, it won\u2019t be another big SPR draw.<\/p>\n

\n
\n<\/div>\n

The Barrels Are Leaving &The High Prices Are Staying<\/strong><\/p>\n

Meanwhile the US is pumping near a record, about 13.7 million barrels a day, and shipping a staggering share of it abroad. In April, total oil exports, crude plus products, hit 13.6 million barrels a day (Most ever).<\/p>\n

Crude on its own touched 5.6 for a stretch this year America was the single biggest oil exporter on earth, quietly plugging the hole Hormuz tore in world supply.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"Image\"<\/picture>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>
A decade ago the US could barely export a barrel of crude. The 2015 repeal of the old export ban opened the taps, and this year they hit an all-time record.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Look at that line for a second, because it matters later. A decade ago it was illegal to export American crude at all. A 1970s ban, born of the last oil shock panic, kept every barrel home.<\/p>\n

Congress killed it in 2015, and exports went vertical.<\/p>\n

That history is the whole reason an export cap is even a conversation again.<\/p>\n

Great for the trade numbers, awkward for the pump because while those barrels sail off to Rotterdam and Yokohama, gasoline at home still runs north of $4 a gallon and diesel is over $5, and the refiners standing in the middle are the ones cleaning up.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"Image\"<\/picture>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n